Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B5 0xb532…84a4 crypto 48 markets active 14h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48,321 (+23%) realized +$48,359 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$4,439per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$600
7 days−$600
14 days−$1,639
30 days+$18,442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$47,299
crypto 36% +$12,808
other 4% −$2,952
economics 2% −$3,847
finance 2% −$3,650
sports 1% −$1,039
tech 0% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 +68.4% +52.4% 75% 75% +43.3%
≤90d 8 +68.4% +52.4% 75% 75% +43.3%
all 45 +14.8% +3.9% 40% 40% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 40% +12.1%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 40% +1.4%
15% -15.1% 38% -8.4%
20% -23.4% 22% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$4,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +67% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,653 vs −$1,311 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized+$48,359
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage597d
Avg bet$4,439
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 54¢ 18¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $604 −$600 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,617 −$1,039 -64%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jun 02 $29,110 +$18,416 +63%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 02 $150 +$61 +41%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jun 02 $57 +$203 +354%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23? Jun 02 $300 +$236 +79%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 17-23? Jun 02 $400 +$626 +156%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Jun 02 $1,000 +$539 +54%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Jan 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November? Nov 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Oct 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Oct 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 13 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 13 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Oct 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Sep 09 $4,000 +$1,556 +39%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025? Mar 11 $1,500 +$448 +30%
Will XRP reach $3.20 by February 28 2025? Mar 11 $1,500 +$543 +36%
OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch? Feb 05 $5,000 −$347 -7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 24 $2,000 +$1,120 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Jan 18 $2,000 −$1,108 -55%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Jan 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Dec 18 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 05 $5,000 +$2,608 +52%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? Nov 30 $7,000 −$1,997 -28%
Solana all time high in Q4? Nov 27 $1,000 +$474 +47%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 25 $15,000 +$9,901 +66%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary? Nov 18 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 13 $9,000 +$4,509 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November? Nov 13 $5,000 +$2,239 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in November? Nov 11 $5,000 +$3,525 +70%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November? Nov 11 $3,000 +$1,430 +48%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $83,000 +$35,316 +42%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Nov 06 $500 −$500 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Nov 06 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? Nov 06 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 06 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 14h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $74 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $218 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $222 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,213 16d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark BUY Yes 39¢ $200 162d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 22¢ $57 176d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 62¢ $150 176d
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 179d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 71¢ $150 179d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 179d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 17-23? BUY Yes 39¢ $400 209d
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23? BUY Yes 56¢ $300 210d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 15¢ $150 210d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November? BUY Yes 43¢ $200 210d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,000 240d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 13¢ $200 247d
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? BUY Yes 14¢ $200 247d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $500 247d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,200 247d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY Yes 37¢ $3,000 247d
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? BUY Yes 39¢ $500 248d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY Yes 30¢ $500 248d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY Yes 30¢ $500 248d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY Yes 29¢ $500 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $511.67 · official $513.05 (match) · 146 history records