Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb529…457f sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$265 (-52%) realized −$265 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$64
other 20% −$51
crypto 13% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -53.4% -57.8% 21% 21% -41.5%
≤30d 19 -53.4% -57.8% 21% 21% -41.5%
≤90d 19 -53.4% -57.8% 21% 21% -41.5%
all 19 -53.4% -57.8% 21% 21% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.8% 21% -41.5%
10% ← realistic here -61.8% 21% -47.1%
15% -65.5% 21% -52.2%
20% -68.9% 21% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$24 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $56 +$84 +150%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 −$42 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $29 +$51 +175%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $37 −$27 -73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $29 +$21 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $140 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $8 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $8 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $19 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $12 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $6 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $21 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $22 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $14 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $21 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $22 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes $23 12h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $5 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $7 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 27h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $5 27h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $14 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records