Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb528…0874 sports 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$49 (+1%) realized +$61 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%62W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$39
sports 40% −$73
politics 9% +$163
crypto 5% −$37
culture 3% +$44
world 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.7% +0.2% 60% 60% +1.7%
≤30d 29 -3.8% -12.9% 45% 45% -11.9%
≤90d 53 -16.5% -24.5% 38% 36% -16.5%
all 154 -1.8% -11.2% 40% 39% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 39% -7.6%
10% -19.7% 38% -16.4%
15% -27.4% 36% -24.5%
20% -34.5% 32% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses62 / 92
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)154 / 162
History coverage604d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $227 $191 −$36 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $52 $78 +$26 (+50%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 −$99 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $61 −$58 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $40 +$27 +67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$20 -65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 −$70 -62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 +$48 +79%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 +$11 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 +$47 +105%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $25 +$68 +274%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? May 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? May 22 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $12 −$11 -96%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting May 11 $23 −$17 -74%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $46 −$44 -97%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $89 +$49 +55%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 30 $54 −$54 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Michael" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on Ma Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Apr 24 $16 −$6 -36%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 23 $16 +$12 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $5 +$7 +152%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $10 −$9 -93%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 20 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 18 $18 +$44 +243%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 +$11 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 14m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 30¢ $30 17m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY 37¢ $30 21m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $10 51m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $1 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia $3 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $61 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 6d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $40 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 8d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 8d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $125 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $11 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 9d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 9d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes $5 10d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 10d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 11d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 11d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 15¢ $42 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.20 · official $465.76 · 519 history records