Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb525…d044 crypto 1048 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-1%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate83%869W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day48.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$24
14 days−$113
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.3% -9.2% 80% 80% -11.7%
≤30d 724 -2.9% -12.2% 80% 23% -10.9%
≤90d 1048 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 21% -10.9%
all 1048 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 21% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 21% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 6% -19.4%
15% -27.8% 2% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses869 / 179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1048 / 1048
History coverage34d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day48.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1048 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$41 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$14 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$22 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$27 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $33 −$33 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $33 −$19 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $32 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $35 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$11 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $22 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $50 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $32 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $32 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $31 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2254 history records