Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B5 0xb524…0808 other 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,433 (+7%) realized +$6,426 · open −$1,993
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate67%124W / 62L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$10,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days+$1,439
14 days+$1,588
30 days+$2,826
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$1,608
politics 30% +$3,668
sports 10% +$503
crypto 3% −$206
world 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -38.7% -44.6% 25% 25% +5.6%
≤30d 54 +12.2% +1.5% 61% 33% -0.5%
≤90d 186 +8.9% -1.5% 67% 34% -1.2%
all 186 +8.9% -1.5% 67% 34% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 34% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 27% -10.7%
15% -19.5% 22% -19.3%
20% -27.4% 17% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$48 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$10,367
Realized+$6,426
Unrealized−$1,993
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses124 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions76
Markets (closed)186 / 259
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$237
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $3,030 $3,210 +$180 (+6%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 75¢ 68¢ $1,814 $1,656 −$158 (-9%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $899 $1,182 +$283 (+31%)
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $597 $552 −$45 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $353 $290 −$63 (-18%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $396 $280 −$116 (-29%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $418 $220 −$198 (-47%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $302 $195 −$107 (-35%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $185 $182 −$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $295 $181 −$113 (-38%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $196 $175 −$21 (-11%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $161 $156 −$5 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $692 $151 −$541 (-78%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $180 $135 −$45 (-25%)
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $111 $124 +$13 (+12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 97¢ 98¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $270 $112 −$158 (-58%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $123 $106 −$17 (-14%)
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $82 $78 −$5 (-6%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 85¢ 92¢ $66 $72 +$6 (+9%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $84 $66 −$18 (-21%)
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $58 $64 +$6 (+10%)
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $48 $64 +$15 (+32%)
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $69 $62 −$7 (-9%)
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No 56¢ 57¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $525 +$258 +49%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,681 −$62 -4%
Will Tunisia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $218 −$158 -73%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $2,892 +$1,789 +62%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,915 −$206 -11%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,216 −$11 -1%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jamie Leweling be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $149 +$1 +0%
Will David Raum be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $149 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,123 +$51 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $216 +$10 +4%
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele Jun 14 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia Jun 14 $559 +$23 +4%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $144 +$108 +75%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 −$28 -11%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,200 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,018 +$79 +8%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $129 −$12 -9%
Libema Open: Completed Match: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $444 +$808 +182%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $82 +$3 +3%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $0 +$1 +786%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $91 +$79 +87%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $221 +$140 +63%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $30 +$20 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $1,914 +$487 +26%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 05 $16 +$9 +53%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $28 −$3 -10%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $32 +$18 +58%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $1,003 +$35 +4%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $2,652 +$32 +1%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $98 +$149 +152%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $82 +$31 +38%
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,941 +$57 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $10 +$20 +200%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $966 +$34 +4%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $259 −$259 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $783 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $269 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 2h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 6h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 9h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 12h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.