Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B5 0xb524…0bd8 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$29 (+14%) realized +$32 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$19
other 35% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +40.2% +26.8% 71% 71% +4.5%
≤30d 7 +40.2% +26.8% 71% 71% +4.5%
≤90d 7 +40.2% +26.8% 71% 71% +4.5%
all 7 +40.2% +26.8% 71% 71% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.8% 71% +4.5%
10% +14.7% 71% -5.5%
15% +3.6% 71% -14.6%
20% -6.5% 71% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$36 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $27 +$31 +114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $18 +$19 +106%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$56 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$27 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$12 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 10m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $27 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $18 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $29 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.42 · official $31.42 (match) · 14 history records