Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb524…3486 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9,877 (-98%) realized −$9,877 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$9,879
other 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +45.1% +31.3% 100% 50% +20.3%
≤90d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 25% -46.0%
all 14 -6.2% -15.1% 79% 7% -98.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 7% -98.9%
10% -23.3% 7% -99.0%
15% -30.7% 7% -99.1%
20% -37.5% 7% -99.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3,298 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$9,877
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage136d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? Jun 03 $35 +$1 +4%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) May 18 $19 +$16 +86%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 23 $20 −$1 -3%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5 Apr 17 $80 −$79 -98%
Spread: Kings (-3.5) Mar 10 $9,816 −$9,816 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Mar 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Mar 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Mar 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 39 Feb 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 25 $2 $0 +9%
Will "Golden - HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, REI AMI" win Best Song Writ Feb 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? Feb 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 25 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $12 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 96¢ $35 28d
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) BUY Timberwolves 53¢ $19 52d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) SELL Hawks 51¢ $19 52d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Hawks 52¢ $20 52d
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $80 58d
Spread: Kings (-3.5) BUY Pacers 51¢ $7 96d
Spread: Kings (-3.5) BUY Pacers 51¢ $9,809 96d
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 110d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $7 110d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 110d
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside BUY Yes 92¢ $2 136d
Will the US strike Somalia next? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 136d
Will "Golden - HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, REI AMI" win Best Song Writ BUY Yes 98¢ $2 136d
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 136d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 39 BUY Yes 99¢ $1 136d
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.78 · official $35.78 (match) · 30 history records