Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb524…9eb7 world 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$80 (-5%) realized +$310 · open −$390
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day137.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,050now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -131% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -131% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
16.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$20 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,050
Realized+$310
Unrealized−$390
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day137.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 51¢ 84¢ $507 $845 +$338 (+67%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 29¢ 10¢ $331 $113 −$219 (-66%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 36¢ 6¢ $601 $93 −$509 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $90 −$20 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,050.18 · official $1,050.18 (match) · 137 history records