Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B5 0xb521…222f crypto 200 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$314 (-1%) realized −$284 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate72%144W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$378
7 days−$378
14 days−$342
30 days−$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$623
politics 1% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -3.7% -12.8% 67% 33% -19.2%
≤30d 52 -3.0% -12.2% 69% 33% -17.2%
≤90d 199 -2.8% -12.1% 72% 43% -12.3%
all 199 -2.8% -12.1% 72% 43% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 43% -12.3%
10% -20.5% 23% -20.7%
15% -28.2% 14% -28.4%
20% -35.2% 6% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$50 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$284
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses144 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage68d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 46¢ 34¢ $110 $80 −$30 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $91 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $111 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $136 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $151 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $142 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$21 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $87 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $275 −$197 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $264 +$40 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$91 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $213 −$199 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $135 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $136 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $229 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $162 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $205 +$19 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $83 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $56 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $81 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $84 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $81 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $98 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $82 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $80 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $91 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $81 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $37 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $81 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.94 · official $36.99 · 542 history records