Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb520…3087 crypto 912 markets active 4d ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (321 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$559 (-11%) realized −$559 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%411W / 575L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day321.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$289
7 days−$355
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$119
other 1% −$6
weather 1% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (321 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 313 -24.7% -31.9% 25% 21% -37.7%
≤30d 986 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 33% -12.2%
≤90d 986 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 33% -12.2%
all 986 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 33% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover321.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 33% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 27% -20.6%
15% -34.9% 21% -28.3%
20% -41.3% 16% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$559
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses411 / 575
Open positions0
Markets (closed)986 / 912
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day321.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 986 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -751%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$4 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$4 -125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +381%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records