Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb51f…b7db sports 862 markets active 3h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,252 (-6%) realized −$2,252 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%463W / 392L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$464
7 days−$286
14 days+$388
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,886
crypto 13% −$384
other 6% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -14.6% -22.8% 61% 52% -8.4%
≤30d 94 -11.2% -19.7% 60% 54% -6.6%
≤90d 261 -14.7% -22.9% 55% 50% -13.3%
all 855 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 48% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 48% -14.4%
10% -26.1% 38% -22.6%
15% -33.3% 28% -30.1%
20% -39.8% 22% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$2,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses463 / 392
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions7
Markets (closed)855 / 862
History coverage112d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 855 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 291 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $110 +$30 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $110 −$27 -24%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $128 −$128 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $216 +$34 +16%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $61 +$39 +64%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 +$37 +36%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $122 +$21 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $183 +$29 +16%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $623 −$367 -59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $90 −$89 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $274 +$25 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $270 +$30 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $68 −$34 -49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $59 −$59 -99%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $66 +$34 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $205 +$85 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $196 −$114 -58%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $129 +$70 +54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$79 -95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $71 +$29 +41%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $107 −$106 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $664 +$77 +12%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $163 +$37 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $522 +$58 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$53 +114%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $194 +$6 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $132 +$68 +51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $70 +$30 +43%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $103 −$46 -44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $54 −$53 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $13 +$7 +50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $316 +$85 +27%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $132 +$79 +60%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $32 +$8 +26%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $85 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $33 +$37 +109%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $98 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 +$4 +36%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $175 +$25 +14%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $151 +$395 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $140 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $110 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 27¢ $81 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 75¢ $128 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $110 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $216 6h
France to score first vs. Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 8h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $140 8h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $103 9h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $143 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $122 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $6 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $176 35h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 35h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 36¢ $72 35h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 35h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 35h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 38¢ $173 35h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 40h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 40h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $126 40h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 40h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 40h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $106 40h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 40h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 89¢ $34 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.78 · official $6.78 (match) · 2326 history records