Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B5 0xb51f…fbb6 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$812 (-68%) realized −$973 · open +$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip
Net edge+81%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$847
other 28% +$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+81.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +100.2% +81.1% 50% 50% -71.1%
≤30d 4 +100.2% +81.1% 50% 50% -71.1%
≤90d 4 +100.2% +81.1% 50% 50% -71.1%
all 4 +100.2% +81.1% 50% 50% -71.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.1% 50% -71.1%
10% +63.8% 50% -73.9%
15% +47.9% 50% -76.4%
20% +33.4% 50% -78.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$439 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$973
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage13d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 30¢ 62¢ $153 $314 +$161 (+105%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $62 +$95 +152%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $94 −$31 -34%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$74 +380%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 21 $867 −$847 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $156 4m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $157 6m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $62 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $94 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $94 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $20 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 21¢ $6 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $861 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.14 · official $314.14 (match) · 10 history records