Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

B5 0xb51c…5118 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,032 (-46%) realized −$1,033 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate50%8W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$124per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-19.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-11.0%	-19.5%	50%	44%	-50.5%
≤30d	16	-11.0%	-19.5%	50%	44%	-50.5%
≤90d	16	-11.0%	-19.5%	50%	44%	-50.5%
all	16	-11.0%	-19.5%	50%	44%	-50.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.5%	44%	-50.5%
10%	-27.2%	44%	-55.2%
15%	-34.3%	19%	-59.6%
20%	-40.7%	19%	-63.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +5% → late -27% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$139 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.15 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized−$1,033

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses8 / 8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage5d

Avg bet$124

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	0¢	48¢	$0	$101	+$101 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	19¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 19	$52	+$14	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 19	$15	−$14	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$23	-88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$20	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$6	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$24	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$8	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$7	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 19	$26	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$22	-86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$24	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$47	+179%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$605	−$478	-79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 18	$528	−$528	-100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?	Jun 14	$613	+$38	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$27	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$66	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$26	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$26	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	SELL Down	2¢	$1	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$2	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$13	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$26	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	SELL Up	6¢	$3	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$26	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$47	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$26	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Up	47¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	SELL Up	5¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Down	86¢	$33	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	SELL Up	49¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Up	7¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	SELL Down	72¢	$73	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$26	2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	16¢	$126	10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	74¢	$605	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$425	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.31 · official $101.31 (match) · 36 history records