Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B5 0xb51b…c2f1 crypto 187 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-2%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%89W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day170.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$69
14 days−$175
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$173
sports 5% +$10
other 3% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +29.5% +17.1% 41% 39% -15.7%
≤30d 187 +15.6% +4.6% 48% 40% -17.0%
≤90d 187 +15.6% +4.6% 48% 40% -17.0%
all 187 +15.6% +4.6% 48% 40% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover170.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 40% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 37% -25.0%
15% -14.6% 34% -32.2%
20% -22.9% 30% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses89 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)187 / 187
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day170.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 187 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$18 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$24 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$26 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$11 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$16 +380%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$9 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$7 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $49 +$25 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $53 +$36 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$69 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$19 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$27 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$62 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$27 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1834 history records