Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb519…4be1 politics 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 39% −$14
sports 6% +$53
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -3.0% -12.3% 10% 6% -9.5%
all 114 -2.3% -11.6% 12% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 7% -9.4%
10% -20.1% 5% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 4% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage113d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $502 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $423 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $181 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $244 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $355 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $425 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $244 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 03 $234 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $274 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $267 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $245 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $402 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $481 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $219 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 18 $371 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $41 4d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $206 20d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $206 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $215 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $215 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 25d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 25d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 26d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $211 26d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $211 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $233 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $233 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $181 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $181 27d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $233 28d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $233 28d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $182 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records