Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B5 0xb515…cd6b sports 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,145 (-7%) realized −$3,087 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%141W / 149L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$501est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$258
7 days+$276
14 days+$226
30 days−$903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$3,832
other 5% −$58
crypto 0% +$87
world 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +24.7% +12.9% 62% 62% +4.2%
≤30d 82 -5.9% -14.9% 45% 45% -21.4%
≤90d 270 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 49% -12.8%
all 290 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 48% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 48% -16.7%
10% -16.5% 47% -24.7%
15% -24.6% 47% -32.0%
20% -32.0% 45% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$154 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$3,087
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses141 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$501
Open positions1
Markets (closed)290 / 294
History coverage102d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 22¢ $100 $42 −$58 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $49 +$33 +67%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 +$69 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 +$34 +46%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$75 +75%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$67 +66%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $44 +$27 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$37 +197%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $108 +$92 +85%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$28 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $145 −$145 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$36 +143%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $45 +$53 +118%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $49 +$63 +127%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $72 +$62 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $72 −$71 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $41 +$32 +79%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $49 +$41 +83%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $144 −$141 -98%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Falcons Force (BO3) - ESEA Adv May 30 $48 −$4 -8%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $55 −$55 -99%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner May 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 29 $29 −$29 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $93 +$135 +145%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout May 29 $55 −$41 -75%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winner May 28 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winner May 28 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 28 $68 −$68 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner May 28 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 28 $93 −$93 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 4 Winner May 28 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner May 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi May 28 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 28 $132 −$132 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 4 Winner May 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner May 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 28 $190 −$190 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY 18¢ $10 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 11¢ $21 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $81 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 59¢ $49 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $102 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 41¢ $51 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $71 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $135 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $51 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $107 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $23 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $50 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $175 26h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 56¢ $100 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $168 27h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) BUY XLG Gaming 61¢ $68 28h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 60¢ $101 28h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $71 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $44 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $188 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $101 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $56 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $19 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $200 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $69 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 58¢ $41 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 54¢ $108 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.67 · official $71.67 · 675 history records