Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb514…147c other 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%34W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$21
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$75
other 29% +$4
politics 19% +$8
sports 11% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 -5.0% -14.0% 24% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 37 -3.9% -13.0% 30% 0% -10.2%
all 94 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses34 / 60
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage472d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $83 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $124 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $63 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $83 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $91 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $84 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $194 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $93 −$11 -11%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $67 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $105 −$11 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $450 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $103 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $206 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $117 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $330 −$30 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $228 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $104 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $239 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $132 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $29 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $107 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $128 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $298 −$21 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $127 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $47 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $165 −$3 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $166 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $108 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,017 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,017 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $1,709 +$7 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $918 +$1 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 15 $14 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18? Jul 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 14 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $91 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $47 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $34 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $36 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $46 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $89 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $89 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $63 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $61 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $76 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $83 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $69 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $91 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $82 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $83 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $57 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $84 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $47 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $91 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $91 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $93 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.20 · official $91.20 (match) · 374 history records