Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb513…b9a6 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$85 (+4%) realized +$59 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%21W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$380
14 days+$380
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 47% +$374
tech 14% −$104
sports 12% −$245
other 9% −$112
politics 8% +$29
world 5% −$24
crypto 4% +$124
culture 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +77.2% +60.4% 100% 100% +26.2%
≤30d 5 +77.2% +60.4% 100% 100% +26.2%
≤90d 12 +28.8% +16.5% 67% 58% +1.9%
all 67 +55.5% +40.7% 31% 30% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.7% 30% -11.4%
10% +27.3% 28% -19.9%
15% +15.0% 19% -27.6%
20% +3.7% 16% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +143% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$16 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses21 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)67 / 72
History coverage238d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 62¢ 62¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Up 49¢ 99¢ $26 $52 +$26 (+102%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $3 +$7 +245%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $890 +$350 +39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 09 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 09 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Mar 30 $40 +$1 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Mar 30 $135 −$135 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 28 $10 +$33 +335%
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Feb 19 $10 +$6 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19? Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Februa Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $5 +$9 +170%
Grok 4.20 released by February 28? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -99%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will J Balvin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $8 +$4 +56%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Feb 01 $1 +$47 +4662%
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Jan 31 $2 +$98 +4900%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 29 $5 +$33 +669%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 63¢ $19 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 62¢ $13 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 62¢ $13 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 62¢ $13 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? SELL Up 80¢ $4 3h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? SELL Up 80¢ $14 5h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? SELL Up 70¢ $31 5h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 43¢ $4 6h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 45¢ $9 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 51¢ $10 9h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 51¢ $15 9h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 51¢ $10 9h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 51¢ $10 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 29h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? SELL Up 90¢ $86 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? SELL Up 80¢ $9 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? SELL Up 80¢ $3 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? SELL Up 80¢ $118 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 65¢ $43 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 65¢ $77 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 65¢ $37 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 65¢ $7 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 65¢ $38 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 67¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 67¢ $115 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 75¢ $101 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 75¢ $34 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 77¢ $38 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 67¢ $85 4d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 70¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.72 · official $119.72 (match) · 295 history records