Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B5 0xb513…f628 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$224 (-3%) realized −$254 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%39W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$136
14 days+$150
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$313
world 18% −$692
crypto 17% $0
tech 13% +$149
politics 11% −$59
culture 9% +$45
economics 0% −$8
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 80% 60% +14.1%
≤30d 8 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 62% +5.7%
≤90d 50 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 54% -6.1%
all 63 -2.7% -12.0% 62% 49% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 49% -14.5%
10% -20.4% 32% -22.7%
15% -28.1% 19% -30.2%
20% -35.2% 13% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$50 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$1,901
Realized−$254
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses39 / 24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)63 / 70
History coverage167d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $559 $594 +$35 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $394 $393 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $274 $273 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $252 $251 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $236 $235 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $144 $143 −$1 (-1%)
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 90¢ 89¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Jun 20 $200 +$34 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $172 +$100 +58%
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 19 $113 +$22 +19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $479 −$9 -2%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $77 +$23 +30%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? Jun 06 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 16 $166 −$157 -95%
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep May 16 $76 +$23 +31%
Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Repr May 16 $112 +$21 +19%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and Apr 15 $14 +$36 +246%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Apr 15 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $48 +$152 +317%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? Apr 10 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 10 $48 +$11 +23%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 08 $50 −$24 -47%
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Apr 08 $18 +$12 +70%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $43 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 30 $22 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 30 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 30 $120 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 30 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 29 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 29 $250 −$46 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 29 $50 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 29 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 29 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 29 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 29 $30 +$28 +93%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Mar 29 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27 Mar 28 $66 +$19 +28%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Mar 28 $175 +$28 +16%
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 800k? Mar 26 $53 +$10 +19%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? Mar 26 $24 −$17 -72%
Will Juan Roberth Flores win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial electio Mar 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial ele Mar 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026? Mar 25 $168 +$8 +5%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Mar 25 $100 +$33 +33%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24? Mar 25 $183 +$17 +9%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026? Mar 25 $293 −$293 -100%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success Mar 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump post "Boeing" on Truth Social this week? Mar 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026? Mar 24 $18 +$2 +10%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 23 $339 +$155 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Kurds declare independence from Iran? SELL No 99¢ $234 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $73 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $78 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $84 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,900.62 · official $1,900.82 (match) · 244 history records