Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

B5 0xb512…ccb0 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$102 (+21%) realized −$17 · open +$119

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-37.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	6	-31.0%	-37.6%	50%	50%	-36.6%
≤90d	6	-31.0%	-37.6%	50%	50%	-36.6%
all	6	-31.0%	-37.6%	50%	50%	-36.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-37.6%	50%	-36.6%
10%	-43.5%	50%	-42.7%
15%	-49.0%	17%	-48.2%
20%	-54.0%	17%	-53.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -31% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.37 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$494

Realized−$17

Unrealized+$119

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)6 / 9

History coverage8d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	6¢	$300	$431	+$131 (+44%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	14¢	12¢	$50	$41	−$9 (-18%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$24	−$23	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$22	+$6	+29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	+$6	+28%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$26	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	29h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$24	6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$29	7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$22	7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$20	7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	71¢	$26	8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$309	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.85 · official $493.85 (match) · 20 history records