Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

B5 0xb511…8bf8 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR7%break-even

Win rate33%5W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$134per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$6

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +7%

net ROI/market (all)-12.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+6.8%	-3.4%	100%	0%	-3.4%
≤90d	4	+14.7%	+3.8%	75%	25%	+47.6%
all	15	-3.4%	-12.6%	33%	7%	-11.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.6%	7%	-11.3%
10%	-21.0%	7%	-19.8%
15%	-28.6%	7%	-27.5%
20%	-35.6%	7%	-34.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +63% too few recent

Fragile wins

80% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -0% → late -6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$30 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage

Net worth$37

Realized−$41

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses5 / 10

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage129d

Avg bet$134

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	99¢	99¢	$37	$37	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	Jun 11	$88	+$6	+7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	Apr 28	$17	−$17	-100%
Utah vs. Flames	Apr 15	$131	+$189	+144%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Apr 01	$52	+$4	+8%
Heat vs. Rockets	Mar 22	$221	−$221	-100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	Mar 18	$99	$0	+0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Mar 18	$99	$0	-0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Mar 14	$13	−$1	-10%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	Mar 09	$199	$0	+0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Mar 05	$197	$0	-0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Feb 28	$197	$0	-0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Feb 24	$197	$0	+0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Feb 20	$197	$0	-0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?	Feb 18	$199	$0	+0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Feb 16	$196	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	99¢	$37	1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	SELL No	94¢	$94	13d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	BUY No	88¢	$88	30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	10¢	$17	57d
Utah vs. Flames	BUY Flames	41¢	$131	72d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$56	84d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$52	86d
Heat vs. Rockets	BUY Heat	46¢	$221	95d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	SELL No	99¢	$99	98d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL No	99¢	$99	98d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	99¢	$99	100d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	BUY No	99¢	$99	100d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL Yes	2¢	$11	101d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY Yes	2¢	$13	103d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$199	106d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$199	108d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL No	98¢	$197	111d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY No	98¢	$197	112d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	99¢	$197	115d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$197	117d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL No	99¢	$197	120d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY No	99¢	$197	121d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	SELL No	98¢	$197	124d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	BUY No	98¢	$197	125d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?	SELL No	100¢	$199	126d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?	BUY No	100¢	$199	127d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL No	98¢	$196	127d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY No	98¢	$196	129d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.58 · official $36.58 (match) · 37 history records