Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb50f…2c5d sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$619 (+6%) realized −$29 · open +$648
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%35W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$706
7 days+$826
14 days+$6
30 days+$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$817
other 31% +$213
crypto 3% +$323
world 1% −$112
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +21.1% +9.6% 45% 45% +14.5%
≤30d 84 +3.6% -6.3% 42% 39% -4.0%
≤90d 84 +3.6% -6.3% 42% 39% -4.0%
all 84 +3.6% -6.3% 42% 39% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 39% -4.0%
10% -15.2% 39% -13.2%
15% -23.4% 39% -21.6%
20% -30.9% 39% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$107 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$648
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 49
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage18d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 28¢ 100¢ $196 $700 +$504 (+257%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 52¢ 100¢ $156 $300 +$144 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $144 +$176 +122%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $138 −$138 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $160 +$240 +150%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $160 +$340 +212%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 +$248 +245%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $106 +$114 +108%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $101 +$129 +127%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $112 −$112 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $92 +$208 +226%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $120 +$180 +150%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $95 +$125 +133%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $76 +$224 +294%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $80 +$120 +150%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $33 +$67 +206%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $64 +$56 +89%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $52 +$68 +133%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $88 −$88 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$150 +150%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $104 +$106 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $92 +$208 +226%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $109 +$86 +79%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $204 +$166 +82%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $396 −$396 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $195 −$195 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $125 +$291 +233%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $200 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $101 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $29 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $26 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 46¢ $138 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $144 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $123 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $3 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $33 28h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $120 45h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $18 45h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.50 · official $999.50 (match) · 313 history records