Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb50e…ab17 politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$2
other 26% −$3
economics 18% −$2
sports 11% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$802) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,069
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage85d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,005 $1,005 −$1 (-0%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $998 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $977 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $866 $0 +0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 03 $789 −$1 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 02 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r May 02 $802 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $776 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Apr 30 $765 $0 +0%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Apr 30 $841 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $125 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 30 $111 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 30 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 2m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $950 9m
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 16m
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 23m
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 32m
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $149 50m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $747 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $228 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $977 1h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $64 40d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 40d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $43 40d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $14 40d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 40d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $21 40d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 40d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $11 40d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $25 40d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $24 51d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 51d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 51d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 51d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 51d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May SELL No 100¢ $603 51d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 99¢ $24 51d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May SELL No 100¢ $185 51d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $789 51d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $50 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,069.34 · official $1,069.34 (match) · 87 history records