Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb50d…f4ec crypto 19 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-11%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$5
sports 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.5% -5.5% 83% 50% -11.4%
≤30d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 79% 47% -20.3%
≤90d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 79% 47% -20.3%
all 19 -0.8% -10.2% 79% 47% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 47% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 16% -27.9%
15% -26.7% 11% -34.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -30%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $3 +$1 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 89¢ $4 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 75¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records