Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb50b…9cd0 crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$298 (-8%) realized −$295 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%41W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day46.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$156
other 28% −$100
sports 26% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 42% -21.7%
≤30d 79 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 42% -21.7%
≤90d 79 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 42% -21.7%
all 79 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 42% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 42% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 32% -29.2%
15% -26.6% 23% -36.0%
20% -33.8% 14% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$28 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses41 / 38
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage4d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 73¢ 50¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $97 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $144 −$142 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $99 +$29 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$14 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $46 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $46 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $82 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $66 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $78 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $76 +$7 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $23 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.78 · official $8.15 · 210 history records