Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B5
0xb50b…095e
sports · 153 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$47
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses6 / 146
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage159d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 152 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $40 −$1 -2%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Feb 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 12 $143 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 10 $55 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 31% −$3
politics 28% −$2
other 18% −$3
economics 5% $0
tech 5% −$1
world 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 12d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 12d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $40 26d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $40 28d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $38 120d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $5 120d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $38 120d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $35 120d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $41 120d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $44 120d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $44 120d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $49 120d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 120d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $48 120d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $48 120d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $44 120d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? SELL No 98¢ $49 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $49 120d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $48 120d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $48 120d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $11 120d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $32 120d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $11 120d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $14 120d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $14 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 120d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $9 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 152 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.16 · official $47.16 (match) · 466 history records