Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb508…8b83 crypto 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$219 (-20%) realized −$170 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%129W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$182
14 days−$182
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$21
sports 30% −$227
other 22% −$20
politics 5% −$10
world 2% −$6
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -45.4% -50.6% 29% 29% -61.4%
≤30d 8 -52.2% -56.8% 25% 25% -63.7%
≤90d 264 -3.7% -12.9% 45% 45% -38.3%
all 286 -3.3% -12.6% 45% 45% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 45% -31.9%
10% -20.9% 43% -38.5%
15% -28.6% 43% -44.4%
20% -35.6% 43% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$170
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses129 / 157
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)286 / 289
History coverage603d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 60¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 52¢ 14¢ $32 $9 −$23 (-72%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$38 +76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $132 −$131 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$16 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $8 −$5 -68%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $15 −$12 -83%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$2 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 23 $2 +$2 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 52¢ $32 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 46¢ $26 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 49¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $71 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $27 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $45 12h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $86 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $43 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $27 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $16 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 18d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.48 · official $53.48 (match) · 665 history records