Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb508…09ec other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$68 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$113
14 days−$113
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$105
sports 1% +$26
politics 1% −$10
economics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -18.9% -26.6% 39% 28% -16.8%
≤30d 18 -18.9% -26.6% 39% 28% -16.8%
≤90d 18 -18.9% -26.6% 39% 28% -16.8%
all 18 -18.9% -26.6% 39% 28% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 28% -16.8%
10% -33.6% 28% -24.7%
15% -40.0% 28% -32.0%
20% -45.9% 17% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$44 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage233d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $10 $40 +$30 (+305%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$27 +253%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $210 −$124 -59%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $158 +$69 +44%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $201 +$195 +97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 +$19 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$52 +43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$8 -71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $38 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $210 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $86 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $210 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $226 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $158 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $201 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $227 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $224 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $205 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $38 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $172 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $120 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $103 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $105 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $42 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 BUY Yes 0¢ $2 233d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 233d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 233d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $1 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.94 · official $238.94 (match) · 37 history records