Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb507…4e79 other 112 markets active 20h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$189 (-0%) realized −$191 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%20W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$833per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$12
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$44
other 37% −$382
sports 16% +$213
culture 2% −$2
world 1% +$18
economics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -11.1% -19.6% 9% 4% -10.4%
all 111 +3.0% -6.8% 18% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 14% -9.7%
10% -15.8% 14% -18.4%
15% -23.9% 14% -26.2%
20% -31.4% 12% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,028) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$10 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$642
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses20 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage122d
Avg bet$833
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $640 $642 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $309 +$2 +1%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,280 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $645 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 04 $439 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $336 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,929 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $561 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,264 −$4 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $2,185 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,380 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $3,094 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,444 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $3,190 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $976 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,435 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $2,076 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $1,217 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $4,109 −$5 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $2,645 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,321 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 27 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $1,183 −$1 -0%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 26 $49 +$53 +108%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $42 +$21 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $640 20h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $852 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $854 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $846 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $909 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $910 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $666 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $667 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $772 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $774 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $643 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $645 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $759 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $761 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $336 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $336 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $491 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $491 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $509 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $510 20d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $523 20d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $523 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $394 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $641.89 · official $641.89 (match) · 376 history records