Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb506…d38a other 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%118W / 165L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$45
sports 36% −$29
crypto 1% −$5
world 1% +$6
politics 1% −$6
culture 1% $0
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +67.3% +51.4% 100% 100% +50.8%
≤30d 2 +67.3% +51.4% 100% 100% +50.8%
≤90d 2 +67.3% +51.4% 100% 100% +50.8%
all 283 +3.2% -6.6% 42% 42% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 42% -8.2%
10% -15.5% 42% -17.0%
15% -23.7% 41% -25.0%
20% -31.2% 40% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses118 / 165
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)283 / 286
History coverage152d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien Ben Shelton 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Senegal vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Delray Beach Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zachary Svajda Kovacevic 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-29? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2026-02-19? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Flavio Cobolli 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Sporting CP vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-29? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? No 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-09? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jelena Ostapenko vs Anna Kalinskaya Ostapenko 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-21? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-02-22? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Telstar 1963 vs. AZ: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $15 −$11 -71%
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko Mar 09 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $6 +$6 +99%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Tommy Paul Mar 09 $2 +$4 +186%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08? Mar 09 $5 +$12 +245%
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Fortuna Sittard vs. Telstar 1963: Both Teams to Score Mar 08 $3 +$2 +61%
Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 08 $4 +$2 +61%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $5 +$3 +72%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $2 −$1 -37%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $4 −$4 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Reilly Opelka Mar 07 $4 +$4 +104%
BNP Paribas Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Denis Shapovalov Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Miomir Kecmanovic Mar 06 $4 +$6 +138%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 06 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $4 +$2 +64%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-04? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Birmingham City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 03 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02? Mar 03 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $3 +$3 +74%
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $7 +$8 +128%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1 +$7 +455%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $3 +$5 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $4 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $8 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5h
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 97d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 97d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 97d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 97d
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $7 97d
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $4 97d
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-09? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 97d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-03-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 97d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 97d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-03-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 97d
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien BUY Ben Shelton 49¢ $3 98d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 98d
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Tommy Paul BUY Joao Fonseca 35¢ $2 98d
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 46¢ $3 98d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 98d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 98d
Fortuna Sittard vs. Telstar 1963: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $3 98d
Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 98d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 99d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 99d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 99d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 99d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 99d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.13 · official $6.13 (match) · 527 history records