Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:07:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B5
0xb504…1f9f
crypto · 21 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$49 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage34d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 4 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $47 $40 −$7 (-16%)
Raphinha: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 20¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? No 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 14 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 14 $25 −$23 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 14 $31 −$26 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 14 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 14 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 10 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 10 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 10 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 10 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% −$19
other 23% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 4m
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $7 28m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 52m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 53m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $19 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $54 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 30d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY No 32¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $12 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $26 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 17 -3.5% -12.7% 65% 47% -10.0%
all 17 -3.5% -12.7% 65% 47% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 47% -10.0%
10% -21.0% 24% -18.6%
15% -28.6% 18% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 18% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.01 · official $45.01 (match) · 45 history records