Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb504…2f85 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-14%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$8
other 19% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-62.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -58.2% -62.2% 22% 22% -27.7%
≤30d 9 -58.2% -62.2% 22% 22% -27.7%
≤90d 9 -58.2% -62.2% 22% 22% -27.7%
all 9 -58.2% -62.2% 22% 22% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.2% 22% -27.7%
10% -65.8% 22% -34.6%
15% -69.1% 22% -40.9%
20% -72.1% 22% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$11 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$25 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 17h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 28h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 38h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 38h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 40h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 40h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.32 · official $49.32 (match) · 13 history records