Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb503…7e29 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$39
politics 21% −$4
economics 6% −$1
sports 4% −$11
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +7.3% -2.9% 23% 8% -7.6%
≤90d 106 -4.0% -13.2% 9% 6% -9.8%
all 112 -3.8% -13.0% 9% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 4% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage94d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $28 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 22 $32 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $14 +$14 +97%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $326 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $158 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $160 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $329 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $170 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $156 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $169 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $363 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $162 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $370 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $334 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $332 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $330 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $158 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $353 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $496 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 5h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 17h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $111 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $28 14d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 24d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 25d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 25d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 28d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 28d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 29d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 30d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $14 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $75 30d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 31d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 31d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 31d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.13 · official $163.13 (match) · 300 history records