Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B5 0xb502…9d8b sports 693 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,291 (+1%) realized +$1,333 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%380W / 303L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$515est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$363
7 days−$567
14 days+$1,091
30 days+$2,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$1,602
other 22% +$2,226
crypto 1% −$127
world 1% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -28.0% -34.8% 42% 42% -30.7%
≤30d 227 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 53% -4.0%
≤90d 511 -5.0% -14.1% 55% 54% -8.9%
all 683 -6.0% -14.9% 56% 55% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 55% -9.0%
10% -23.1% 47% -17.7%
15% -30.5% 39% -25.6%
20% -37.3% 31% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$89 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized+$1,333
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses380 / 303
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$515
Open positions9
Markets (closed)683 / 693
History coverage117d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 683 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $250 $242 −$8 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 60¢ 69¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Over 54¢ 4¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-92%)
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$37 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Orkun Kökçü: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $105 +$30 +29%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $149 +$173 +116%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $173 −$78 -45%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $252 −$252 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $88 +$87 +98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 14 $25 +$24 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5 Jun 14 $143 +$66 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5 Jun 14 $115 +$33 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $263 −$194 -74%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5 Jun 11 $101 +$31 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $115 +$247 +215%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $51 +$25 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $249 +$36 +14%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $441 +$53 +12%
Hungary leading at halftime? Jun 09 $25 −$22 -87%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 +$30 +60%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $162 +$85 +52%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $142 +$107 +75%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 09 $252 +$71 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $591 +$305 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $704 +$102 +14%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 08 $26 +$64 +250%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $101 −$2 -2%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Luxembourg leading at halftime? Jun 07 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $166 +$39 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $252 +$92 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 60¢ $25 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $25 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Orkun Kökçü: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $105 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $142 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 53¢ $101 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 46¢ $95 4d
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 45¢ $73 4d
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 46¢ $76 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $69 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 4d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $51 5d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $51 5d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 BUY No 51¢ $25 5d
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $41 5d
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 48¢ $25 5d
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $88 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5 BUY Under 68¢ $143 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5 BUY Under 77¢ $115 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Over 75¢ $252 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $25 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.84 · official $630.61 · 1865 history records