Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb501…9a53 weather 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-2%) realized −$156 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%78W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$1,410
14 days−$1,212
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$197
sports 1% −$8
crypto 1% −$30
other 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -48.6% -53.5% 17% 15% -56.0%
≤30d 84 +13.5% +2.7% 37% 33% -12.2%
≤90d 168 +5.1% -4.9% 40% 36% -14.8%
all 193 +10.1% -0.4% 40% 36% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 36% -13.5%
10% -9.9% 35% -21.8%
15% -18.6% 31% -29.3%
20% -26.6% 31% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$31 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses78 / 115
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)193 / 196
History coverage117d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 56¢ $107 $150 +$43 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $52 $56 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $58 $50 −$8 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 −$68 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $94 −$91 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $91 +$159 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $13 +$68 +524%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $78 +$21 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $33 −$28 -85%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $104 +$136 +131%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $80 −$69 -86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $110 +$18 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$76 +382%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $19 −$6 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $108 −$83 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 27? Jun 11 $12 −$6 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on May 26? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 27? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Jun 11 $39 −$20 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 2? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 29? Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 28? Jun 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 11 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 −$32 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 −$8 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $160 +$97 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $82 +$138 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $90 −$55 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 45m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $48 51m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $48 56m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 58m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 45h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 45h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 45h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 46h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $77 46h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $74 46h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $81 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.08 · official $256.08 (match) · 1271 history records