Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb500…1cde crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$723 (-3%) realized −$515 · open −$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%42W / 34L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$256est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,335
7 days−$391
14 days−$391
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$591
crypto 20% −$235
other 1% −$9
finance 0% −$50
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -1.8% -11.2% 59% 59% -11.8%
≤30d 29 -1.8% -11.2% 59% 59% -11.8%
≤90d 29 -1.8% -11.2% 59% 59% -11.8%
all 76 +6.4% -3.8% 55% 51% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 51% -12.1%
10% -13.0% 50% -20.5%
15% -21.4% 41% -28.2%
20% -29.1% 32% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$220 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$5,172
Realized−$515
Unrealized−$208
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses42 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions17
Markets (closed)76 / 93
History coverage173d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 57¢ $1,000 $900 −$100 (-10%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 55¢ $700 $649 −$51 (-7%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 74¢ 73¢ $600 $590 −$10 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 66¢ 66¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 77¢ 76¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 83¢ 81¢ $250 $246 −$4 (-2%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $220 $222 +$2 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Under 71¢ 70¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 29¢ 26¢ $200 $183 −$17 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $106 $126 +$20 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $106 $118 +$12 (+12%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 33¢ 33¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $108 $68 −$40 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $403 +$196 +49%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $504 +$200 +40%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $505 +$276 +55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $505 +$230 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,009 +$423 +42%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $505 +$264 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $504 +$158 +31%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $503 +$141 +28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $504 +$162 +32%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $697 −$58 -8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $506 −$22 -4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,014 +$873 +86%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $508 +$492 +97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $537 −$530 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $506 −$500 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $507 +$457 +90%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $464 +$464 +100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $504 +$172 +34%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $304 +$196 +65%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $504 −$500 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $350 +$180 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $754 −$750 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $253 +$156 +62%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $617 −$610 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $499 −$495 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $619 −$616 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 25 $114 +$41 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 25 $450 −$444 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 25 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 25 $100 −$59 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 24? Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 24 $100 +$94 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$48 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 23 $100 +$93 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 23 $100 +$101 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 22 $200 +$69 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 22 $56 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 22 $136 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 22 $300 +$77 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 22 $248 +$200 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 22 $469 −$219 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 22 $217 −$158 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 22 $227 −$167 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 22 $553 +$166 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 22 $200 −$197 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $222 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $605 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $302 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $251 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $102 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $505 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $192 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 29¢ $142 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $153 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $303 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $505 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $505 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $204 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 70¢ $466 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $504 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $1,011 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $709 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $1,009 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $505 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $639 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $505 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $504 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $504 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $504 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $504 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $484 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $504 42h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $503 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,172.40 · official $5,172.43 (match) · 345 history records