Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4fe…8726 sports 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$238 (-3%) realized −$173 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%76W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$757
7 days−$704
14 days−$1,108
30 days−$603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$571
crypto 12% −$48
other 6% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.8% -40.1% 20% 20% -42.5%
≤30d 98 +0.0% -9.5% 51% 48% -16.5%
≤90d 142 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 50% -14.6%
all 142 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 50% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 50% -14.6%
10% -17.2% 44% -22.8%
15% -25.2% 38% -30.2%
20% -32.5% 30% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$53 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses76 / 66
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage53d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 27¢ 0¢ $66 $1 −$65 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 20 $1,281 −$688 -54%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $390 −$210 -54%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $190 +$263 +139%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $232 +$207 +89%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $226 +$203 +90%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $77 −$4 -5%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $139 +$192 +138%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $153 −$74 -48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $38 −$17 -45%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $68 −$1 -1%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $51 +$39 +77%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $38 +$6 +14%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $147 +$190 +129%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$32 +62%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $54 −$11 -21%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $114 +$39 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $53 −$47 -89%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $147 +$33 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $61 +$32 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 07 $92 −$92 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $242 −$114 -47%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $107 +$8 +7%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $69 +$38 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $69 +$118 +171%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $99 +$126 +126%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $148 +$92 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 30 $16 +$1 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $69 −$69 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $68 +$122 +178%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 28 $107 −$107 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $145 +$182 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 27¢ $67 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY Toronto KOI 27¢ $19 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $50 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $51 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $543 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 62¢ $593 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $687 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 74¢ $181 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 52¢ $101 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $91 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 80¢ $198 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 46¢ $452 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 15¢ $51 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 20¢ $138 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 91¢ $438 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $102 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $130 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 82¢ $408 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 82¢ $20 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 7d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Liquid 50¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $72 7d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Liquid 49¢ $72 7d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $77 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $153 7d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 41¢ $102 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 97¢ $331 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $139 7d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 27¢ $102 7d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 27¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.61 (match) · 382 history records