Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4fc…a926 crypto 222 markets active 3h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,136 (+0%) realized +$4,859 · open −$723
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%113W / 104L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$6,860per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$33,169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$44,355
crypto 12% −$7,701
other 11% +$7,849
politics 2% +$1,069
sports 1% −$1,576
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +31.2% +18.7% 73% 64% -3.7%
≤30d 63 -11.1% -19.6% 54% 29% -8.4%
≤90d 217 +4.4% -5.5% 52% 29% -6.7%
all 217 +4.4% -5.5% 52% 29% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 29% -6.7%
10% -14.6% 19% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -22.8% 15% -23.8%
20% -30.4% 14% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$4,856) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$755 vs −$390 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$33,169
Realized+$4,859
Unrealized−$723
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses113 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions7
Markets (closed)217 / 222
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$6,860
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 87¢ $19,600 $18,309 −$1,291 (-7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10,000 $10,005 +$5 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $2,410 $2,838 +$428 (+18%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 69¢ 70¢ $1,664 $1,682 +$19 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 29¢ 46¢ $129 $202 +$73 (+57%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? No 74¢ 98¢ $58 $76 +$19 (+32%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 46¢ 81¢ $31 $55 +$24 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $200 +$176 +88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $98 +$53 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $211 +$204 +97%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $106 −$86 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $517 +$441 +85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $53 +$17 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $521 −$500 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $14,797 +$2,117 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $11,690 +$2,481 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $18,694 −$744 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $26,426 +$579 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $19,720 +$690 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $384 −$134 -35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $2,500 +$219 +9%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $250 −$91 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $15,669 +$747 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $6,835 −$3,098 -45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $1,759 +$234 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $106 +$122 +116%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $98,731 −$2,013 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $8,826 +$754 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $452 −$452 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $7,685 +$315 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $1,540 +$469 +30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $6,006 +$400 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $2,444 −$1,194 -49%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $150 +$150 +100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $247 +$10 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $2,745 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $106 −$55 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $41,590 +$666 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $181 +$275 +152%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $5,666 −$142 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $191 +$53 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $195 +$277 +142%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $738 +$245 +33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $23,143 +$89 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $31,066 +$440 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2,968 +$176 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $64 −$60 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $8,033 +$243 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $53 −$29 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $66 −$62 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $206 −$200 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $212 −$200 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $106 −$100 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,000 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $5,000 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $9,281 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $19 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $251 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $37 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $39 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $98 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $42 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $35 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $427 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $5,300 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $346 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $129 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $2,213 11h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $376 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $3,631 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $16,226 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $35 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $31 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $105 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $72 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $29 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $65 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $66 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,169.26 · official $33,169.27 (match) · 3500 history records