Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb4fb…96ae crypto 551 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,107 (-13%) realized −$5,807 · open −$300
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%289W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,178
7 days−$2,250
14 days−$2,250
30 days−$2,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$3,797
other 2% −$276
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -19.6% -27.2% 35% 35% -41.7%
≤30d 271 -19.6% -27.2% 35% 35% -41.7%
≤90d 580 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 41% -21.1%
all 580 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 41% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 41% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 31% -28.6%
15% -38.0% 26% -35.5%
20% -44.1% 22% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$56 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized−$5,807
Unrealized−$300
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses289 / 291
Open positions2
Markets (closed)580 / 551
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $753 $477 −$276 (-37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 43¢ 22¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 256 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$58 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$44 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$43 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$114 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$39 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$72 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$87 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$67 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$41 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$78 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $19 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.93 · official $500.60 (match) · 3500 history records