Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4f6…eada world 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$804 (+7%) realized +$801 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%61W / 36L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day167.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days+$297
14 days+$171
30 days+$584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$366
other 22% +$132
crypto 10% +$2
politics 10% +$47
tech 4% −$21
sports 2% +$59
finance 1% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +21.5% +10.0% 55% 36% +9.6%
≤30d 97 +8.5% -1.9% 63% 33% -1.3%
≤90d 97 +8.5% -1.9% 63% 33% -1.3%
all 97 +8.5% -1.9% 63% 33% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 33% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 24% -10.7%
15% -19.8% 21% -19.3%
20% -27.7% 15% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3,380
Realized+$801
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses61 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions68
Markets (closed)97 / 149
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day167.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 99¢ $166 $208 +$41 (+25%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 60¢ 96¢ $65 $104 +$39 (+61%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+6%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $88 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 86¢ 92¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+8%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 94¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $69 $73 +$4 (+6%)
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 95¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+7%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 80¢ 84¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 79¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $30 +$2 +5%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $61 +$91 +149%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $61 −$37 -60%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $160 −$15 -9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $60 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $60 +$132 +221%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $95 +$44 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $155 +$222 +144%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $24 −$20 -85%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $70 +$9 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $156 −$77 -50%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$15 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $37 +$43 +118%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $35 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $60 +$8 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $35 +$6 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $82 +$123 +150%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $40 −$13 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$4 +6%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $179 −$32 -18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $357 +$10 +3%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $60 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $96 −$33 -34%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 13 $120 +$30 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 13 $72 −$23 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $60 +$24 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $59 −$26 -44%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $60 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $140 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $61 +$33 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $87 −$36 -41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $70 +$12 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $83 −$26 -32%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $90 −$9 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $60 −$5 -9%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $131 +$12 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 46m
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $30 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $2 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $6 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $1 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $1 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $3 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $1 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $2 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $5 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $1 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $6 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $3 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $0 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $9 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $5 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 72¢ $8 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,379.73 · official $3,379.73 (match) · 3500 history records