Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4f3…afd7 weather 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$517 (-4%) realized −$444 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%81W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$323
7 days−$465
14 days−$584
30 days−$662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$716
world 6% −$51
politics 5% −$22
sports 4% −$14
crypto 3% +$54
tech 2% −$251
other 2% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -36.1% -42.2% 27% 23% -18.4%
≤30d 165 -33.5% -39.9% 33% 27% -16.6%
≤90d 215 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 26% -15.8%
all 232 -24.7% -31.9% 35% 25% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 25% -17.0%
10% -38.4% 17% -24.9%
15% -44.4% 12% -32.2%
20% -49.8% 9% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$18 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$444
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses81 / 151
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions16
Markets (closed)232 / 248
History coverage581d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 88¢ 84¢ $221 $210 −$11 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? No 83¢ 68¢ $71 $58 −$13 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $8 $3 −$6 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $61 −$11 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $170 −$32 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $405 −$178 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $449 −$125 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $56 +$12 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -13%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$18 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $182 +$85 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$29 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $54 −$12 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$15 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $66 −$9 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $195 +$59 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $212 −$24 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $220 +$68 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $212 +$33 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $133 −$48 -36%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 −$22 -75%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $210 −$60 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $55 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $192 +$36 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$93 +161%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$9 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 +$13 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$23 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $131 −$16 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 58m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $222 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 49¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 52¢ $17 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $35 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $119 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $65 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $34 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.65 · official $333.86 · 1219 history records