Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4f3…4be0 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$1
other 9% −$8
politics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.7% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 0% -9.3%
all 39 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 3% -10.6%
10% -28.6% 0% -19.2%
15% -35.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -41.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage445d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $71 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $24 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $46 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 03 $8 $0 +5%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 02 $17 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 31 $8 $0 +4%
Will Gonçalo Ramos be named the Champions League Final man of the matc May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 26 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will Momo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 24 $2 $0 -31%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 24 $0 $0 -29%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 29 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $50 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $9 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $41 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $50 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $33 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $13 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $16 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $29 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $24 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $27 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $51 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $24 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $6 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $31 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $6 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $19 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records