Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4f2…7862
other · 11 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$21,172 +781%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,442 · open +$1,815
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33,228
Realized+$5,442
Unrealized+$1,815
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Open positions27
Markets (closed)21 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day1788.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 27 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,442
7 days+$5,442
14 days+$5,442
30 days+$5,442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,309 $4,668 +$359 (+8%)
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,349 $3,628 +$279 (+8%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,000 $3,250 +$250 (+8%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,724 $2,918 +$195 (+7%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,300 $2,684 +$383 (+17%)
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,111 $2,463 +$352 (+17%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,765 $2,060 +$294 (+17%)
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,784 $1,933 +$149 (+8%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,904 $1,587 −$317 (-17%)
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,670 $1,392 −$278 (-17%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,603 $1,336 −$267 (-17%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,200 $1,300 +$100 (+8%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,187 $1,286 +$99 (+8%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $945 $1,024 +$79 (+8%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $700 $750 +$50 (+7%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $700 $750 +$50 (+7%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $114 $138 +$24 (+21%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $44 $55 +$11 (+25%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 81¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+2097%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+119%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Jun 12 $0 $0 -180%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic openi Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jun 12 $0 +$958 +79872392%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 12 $130 −$136 -104%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1,409 +74180000%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Jun 12 $429 +$127 +30%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 12 $85 +$597 +704%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $109 +$1,740 +1589%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $807 +$652 +81%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $100 +$100 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% +$1,118
economics 8% +$763
politics 4% +$2,426
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+210.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +243.1% +210.4% 33% 33% +157.6%
≤30d 21 +243.1% +210.4% 33% 33% +157.6%
≤90d 21 +243.1% +210.4% 33% 33% +157.6%
all 21 +243.1% +210.4% 33% 33% +157.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1788.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +210.4% 33% +157.6%
10% ← realistic here +180.7% 33% +133.0%
15% +153.6% 29% +110.5%
20% +128.7% 29% +89.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,228.23 · official $33,228.24 (match) · 3500 history records