Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4f1…b01d other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$38
sports 27% −$28
politics 8% −$9
culture 8% −$6
economics 6% −$6
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage134d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $463 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $178 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $291 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $473 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $377 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $123 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $790 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $261 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $365 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $269 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $424 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $391 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $391 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $259 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $283 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $438 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 7h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 9h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $5 9h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 11h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 14h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 16h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 16h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 18h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 19h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 21h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 25h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 39h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 41h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 42h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1351 history records