Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4f1…d343 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$6
other 28% $0
politics 23% +$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 17% -7.8%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 10% -8.2%
≤90d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 10% -8.2%
all 44 -1.6% -11.0% 39% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -8.9%
10% -19.5% 2% -17.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage364d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$3 +15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $41 +$3 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 06 $1 $0 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? Aug 11 $22 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $2 $0 +33%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025? Aug 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5? Jul 01 $24 $0 +1%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 21? Jun 22 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 18 $22 $0 +2%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jun 17 $22 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $36 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $7 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $23 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $6 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 34h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $49 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $19 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $46 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $48 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $44 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $16 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $5 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $20 8d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $11 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.59 · official $50.59 (match) · 121 history records