Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4f0…8370 politics 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,102 (-1%) realized −$1,101 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$845per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$10
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$63
other 27% +$64
sports 16% −$1,102
economics 4% −$3
culture 3% −$4
world 2% −$5
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -4.8% -13.8% 5% 0% -10.3%
all 144 -5.3% -14.3% 17% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 6% -10.3%
10% -22.5% 6% -18.9%
15% -30.0% 5% -26.8%
20% -36.9% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,298) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized−$1,101
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage140d
Avg bet$845
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $649 $648 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $486 +$2 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,973 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $693 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,903 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $759 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,804 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,391 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,171 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $705 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 26 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $3,255 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $984 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? May 19 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,104 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 04 $692 +$1 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $2,195 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,296 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,613 −$3 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,296 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,090 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,469 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,843 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,303 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,744 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,314 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $494 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $216 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,431 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $241 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $241 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $649 44h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $480 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $481 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $779 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $780 5d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $755 5d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $756 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $692 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $693 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $754 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $755 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $690 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $691 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $789 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $791 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $757 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $759 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $684 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $685 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $785 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $786 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $764 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $766 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $751 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $753 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $861 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $705 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.73 · official $647.73 (match) · 456 history records