Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb4ef…682f crypto 638 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (150 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10,671 (+41%) realized +$10,640 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate41%471W / 664L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day150.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,520
other 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (150 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 749 -64.6% -67.9% 25% 11% -57.8%
≤30d 1135 -40.6% -46.3% 41% 23% -36.6%
≤90d 1135 -40.6% -46.3% 41% 23% -36.6%
all 1135 -40.6% -46.3% 41% 23% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.3% 23% -36.6%
10% ← realistic here -51.4% 3% -42.7%
15% -56.1% 1% -48.2%
20% -60.4% 0% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -87% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$10,640
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses471 / 664
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1135 / 638
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day150.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 51¢ 57¢ $128 $144 +$15 (+12%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $68 $83 +$16 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $55 −$57 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $17 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $45 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $50 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $46 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $19 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $23 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.00 · official $227.00 (match) · 3500 history records