Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4ee…cc59 other 355 markets active 0h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,241 (-5%) realized −$1,227 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%181W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$17,720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$10
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$94
sports 7% +$92
politics 6% −$1,271
weather 2% −$236
world 0% +$37
tech 0% −$9
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +2.9% -6.9% 66% 38% -2.1%
≤30d 55 +13.6% +2.8% 69% 45% -2.3%
≤90d 93 +17.0% +5.9% 72% 53% -42.6%
all 322 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 48% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 48% -35.4%
10% -17.0% 34% -41.6%
15% -25.0% 24% -47.3%
20% -32.4% 16% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$17,720
Realized−$1,227
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses181 / 141
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)322 / 355
History coverage223d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $17,703 $17,699 −$4 (-0%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 77¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Marc Dos Santos win 2026 MLS Coach of the Year? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+104%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 90¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 84¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 67¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026? Yes 84¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
Megaquake by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 +43%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +43%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 18 $1 $0 -17%
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -64%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Hugo Lloris win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -77%
Will Denis Bouanga win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -88%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 2000.00 or higher at the Jun 18 $1 −$1 -84%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +98%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -39%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2027 Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 +30%
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +34%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $58 +$26 +44%
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$9 -73%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +17%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Will Son Heung-min win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $39 −$3 -8%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 31 $1 $0 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 80¢ $1 9m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9m
Megaquake by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 10m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 10m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 10m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 1h
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Hugo Lloris win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Denis Bouanga win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6,082 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $9,835 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,991 5h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $1 19h
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 19h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1 19h
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 2000.00 or higher at the SELL Yes $0 19h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 36¢ $1 19h
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 19h
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 19h
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 19h
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 19h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 19h
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 19h
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 19h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,720.30 · official $17,720.30 (match) · 1740 history records