Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb4ec…1cc8 crypto 1429 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,955 (-13%) realized −$5,956 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%564W / 863L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$24
14 days−$347
30 days−$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$4,125
sports 45% −$1,948
other 1% −$159
world 0% −$25
culture 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +16.0% +5.0% 42% 42% -6.8%
≤30d 204 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 39% -20.1%
≤90d 1427 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 39% -22.3%
all 1427 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 39% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 39% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 38% -29.7%
15% -34.2% 37% -36.5%
20% -40.7% 36% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$5,956
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses564 / 863
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1427 / 1429
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 37¢ 38¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 26¢ 26¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $20 +$31 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$25 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$57 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$15 +159%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 +$25 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$36 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $20 −$14 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$42 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$48 +379%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$27 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$14 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$9 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$9 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$11 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $13 +$17 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 26¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 37¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 39¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $19 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 13h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 50¢ $25 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $29 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $18 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.39 · official $55.91 · 3500 history records