Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4ec…4fcc sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-26%) realized −$25 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$11
other 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-60.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -55.9% -60.1% 29% 29% -59.7%
≤30d 7 -55.9% -60.1% 29% 29% -59.7%
≤90d 7 -55.9% -60.1% 29% 29% -59.7%
all 7 -55.9% -60.1% 29% 29% -59.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.1% 29% -59.7%
10% -64.0% 29% -63.5%
15% -67.4% 29% -67.1%
20% -70.6% 14% -70.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 69¢ 82¢ $35 $41 +$7 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$3 +65%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 69¢ $35 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 69¢ $5 46h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $3 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.42 · official $41.42 (match) · 10 history records